Aug 10 - Bet on the underdog vs. top teams that are not playing well

Wow, the Yankees got it done and won us some money as well as increasing their division lead to a tremendous 6 1/2 games. The Boston Red Sox bullpen just keeps letting them down and the Yankees were there to capitalize. Another Free winner! Bet with confidence. Today we have a value bet that could earn our followers some nice profits.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

Here we have a division leading team that has been playing truly bad baseball as of late vs. a hot team that wants to cut into that division lead. The Giants look to send the Dodgers to their fourth straight defeat - and 11th in 16 games - as the rivals open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday night. The Dodgers do not seem to be the same team that they were early in the season. The Dodgers won their first three meetings with the Giants this season but have dropped four of the last six six. They lost two of three in their first trip to AT&T Park from April 27-29.

The second half heat wave known as Jonathan Sanchez will start for the Giants. The left-hander has posted a 1.42 ERA while winning back-to-back starts. He held Houston to four hits while striking out eight in seven scoreless innings of an 8-1 victory Tuesday. Sanchez is 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in nine games at AT&T Park, where he pitched the majors' first no-hitter of the season back on July 10. He has found his pitch and we would not want to be in the batters box for the Dodgers tonight.

Los Angeles will counter with Hiroki Kuroda (4-5, 4.44), who is 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA in four starts against San Francisco, all last year. Kuroda is 1-5 his last 6 on the road when facing a team with a winning record. We don't see him holding down the Giant offense tonight.

Some Pure Profets trends for you:
Dodgers are 18-37 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Dodgers are 3-9 in their last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts.
Dodgers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in San Francisco.

Lets back the home team and get some plus value for our play.

PURE PROFETS FREE PLAY OF THE DAY:

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +110

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Aug 8 - Extra innings baseball games = Extra money next game

Another free pick winner for you last night with the Seattle Mariners. It did take them until extra innings to put away the Rays but they got it done and put some more profits in our account. Today we will look at another baseball game that went into extra innings last night and the effects it will have on today's game.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

If you stayed up late last night you got to see an amazing baseball game between the Yanks and Sox. Great pitchers duel with Beckett and Burnett pitching phenomenal games. The game went to the 15th inning still tied at 0-0. Alex Rodriguez, who has not been a fan favorite in clutch situations, came through in the 15th with a 2 run home run to win it. He might be starting to win over the last holdouts that say he can not get it done in NY.

Boston used every single pitcher that they had available last night eventually relying on starting pitcher that they had called up from the minors that morning. This does not bode well for the Red Sox today.

Boston now goes up against powerhouse CC Sabathia (11-7, 3.95 ERA) in today's contest and counters with still unproven Clay Buchholz (1-1, 6.05) hoping for a better performance than his last one. The right-hander gave up seven runs in four innings Sunday, but he never trailed as the Red Sox totaled 14 runs in the first four innings of the 18-10 win at Baltimore.
Buchholz's only two starts against the Yankees came in April of last season. He didn't get a decision while posting a 7.45 ERA in those games, both Boston losses. We expect another one with him getting no help from the bullpen or his hitters.

PURE PROFETS FREE PLAY OF THE DAY:

YANKEES - 1 1/2 RUNS (-105)

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Aug 7 - Look for Starting Pitchers who historically dominate a team

Not much time tonight but I wanted to get you a free pick that we feel strongly about.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

The fact that Tampa Bay has been playing good baseball is the only thing that has kept this line down. The fact that they are traveling across the country to play against a pitcher they have not been good against will not help them though.

Fantastic Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.78 ERA) is on the hill for Seattle tonight. The All-Star right-hander allowed four hits in seven innings of a 1-0 victory over Tampa Bay on April 23, to improve to 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in six starts against the Rays. The Mariners have won 5 of the 6 games he has started against the Rays.

The Mariners send rookie Jeff Niemann to the mound. He has had a decent season so far but this is about the time that rookies start to wear down from the effects of a long major league baseball season. We also like the under in this game.

Some quick trends:
Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
Mariners are 6-0 in Hernandezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Mariners are 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandezs last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Mariners are 9-1 in Hernandezs last 10 starts.

Sorry for the short analysis but -

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY IS:

SEATTLE MARINERS - 125
-BONUS PLAY - TAKE UNDER 8 IN THE GAME

enjoy your winnings. email us at pureprofets@gmail.com for more.

Aug 5 - Pitching changes validate a severe betting line move

Always make sure you are reading the latest updates when doing your baseball handicapping. Injuries, especially to starting pitchers can move the betting money line drastically. Be aware of all the angles that bookmakers use and you will be able to keep up with them and make some money off the slow ones.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Oakland's scheduled starter Dallas Braden has been removed from the lineup due to a rash on his left ankle causing swelling. (Really? That is the first time I heard of that one but then again this is the first year that social anxiety disorder has been a valid reason to go on the DL.) This has caused a drastic line change in fact changing the Rangers from being a visiting underdog to a road favorite. We feel this move is valid though.

Oakland will substitute with Chad Reineke, who makes his Athletics debut after he was acquired from San Diego on April 8. He has not pitched in the majors at all this season. Oakland (46-60) is not a good team this season and it looks like they are ready to throw in the towel. They will get their prospects some playing time at the expense of adding to their loss total.

Texas (59-46) entered this trip winner of 11 of 14, but has managed only two runs and 12 hits, in losing the first two games against last-place Oakland (46-60). In Tuesday's 6-0 defeat, the Rangers were held without a hit until the fifth inning. For a Texas team trying to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, the start to the trip has been a disappointing one. For a top hitting team like Texas this will not continue.

Vicente Padilla has been very effective for Texas so far this season, and the only thing slowing down the veteran southpaw lately has been a bout of the swine flu. But Padilla has recovered and is ready to add to his nine quality starts (in 17 outings) he has already had for this team this season. Padilla has a 7-3 record with a 3.69 ERA over his last 12 starts and is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in seven starts on the road this season.

Take the veteran over the rookie any day.

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY:

TEXAS RANGERS -115

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Aug 4 - Always play the Hot team over the Cold team in baseball if getting a good betting line.

We have a free pick on a game tonight where the betting line seems way off. How can the best team in baseball since the All Star break be an underdog to a team that has lost 7 in a row and is in a tail spin?

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnatti Reds

After stumbling through the first half of the season, the Cubs (56-48) have gone 20-10 since July 1 and an NL-best 13-5 since the All-Star break to move one percentage point ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the tough NL Central division race. While the Cubs have made an impressive turnaround, the Reds are watching their playoffs hopes vanish.

Cincinnati (45-60) has lost seven in a row and 13 of 14, going a major league-worst 5-21 since July 5 to go from two games out of first into a last-place tie with Pittsburgh, 11 1/2 off the division lead.

Chicago's offense has really started to click and that gives it the edge against baseball's coldest pitcher tonight. The Reds' Cueto had both the majors' worst ERA (8.16) and opponents' batting average (.355) last month. Teams have figured him out. The Reds are 1-4 in Cueto's last 5 starts vs. the Cubs.

Tom Gorzelanny is expected to make his debut for the Cubs tonite and I expect the team to rally behind him and give him plenty of run support. The Reds really struggle against lefty starters, averaging just 3.8 runs per game with a .249 batting average. The Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Reds.

Pure Profets trends:
Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
Reds are 6-22 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a loss.
Cubs are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Bottom line, all signs point to the Cubbies.

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY:

CHICAGO CUBS -EVEN

-lets take it to the bank

August 2 - Play hot home teams needing wins over teams that are coasting

There is some great baseball to be played now as teams strive to make the playoffs. Other teams have a nice lead and can afford to rest their stars and coast into the playoffs. Today's free pick will showcase a hot pitcher vs. one that has been on the downslide recently.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

The Braves have won 11 of their last 14 at home. Starting today is Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69 ERA) who has won all three of his starts at Turner Field in that span, allowing one earned run and only six hits in 20 2/3 innings. With an offense that has been inconsistent for much of the year, Atlanta has relied on strong pitching - its 3.74 ERA ranks 4th lowest in the majors - to stay within striking distance in the NL East and wild-card races. Jurrjens has been perhaps the Braves' best pitcher this season, with his ERA leading the team's starters and ranking among the top six in the NL. The right-hander has been especially hot lately, going 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last four starts overall. Jurrjens beat the Dodgers twice last year, allowing two runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He'll again face Los Angeles' Chad Billingsley after beating him in Atlanta's 9-3 victory July 8, 2008.

The Dodgers (64-40) aren't feeling much heat with a comfortable lead in the NL West, but Billingsley (10-6, 3.96) is under some pressure after his recent struggles. The right-hander won nine of his first 12 decisions and had a 2.72 ERA on June 14, but since then he's 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his last eight starts.
He allowed one hit through five shutout innings Tuesday against St. Louis, but gave up six runs and couldn't get out of the sixth in a 10-0 loss, walking a season-high six. This has been a habit for him, having that atrocious inning that basically gives the game away. Besides his loss to Jurrjens, Billingsley also lost to the Braves in his first start against them April 19, 2008. In the two outings, the right-hander walked nine and allowed nine earned runs in 10 1-3 innings.

Lets see if things stay the same and the Braves can do it again at home in prime time on ESPN.

PURE PROFETS FREE PLAY OF THE DAY

ATLANTA BRAVES -135

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Aug 1 - MLB trade deadline is history. Now lets see how the pennant race shapes up.

A few big trades as the deadline approached but once again Roy Halladay is still a sad Toronto Blue Jay. Victor Martinez to the Red Sox might cause some problems as he is coming in to take the captain Jason Varitek's spot. We shall see. Today we will be quick with our pick and follow some betting trends.

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

We have 2 good pitchers going tonight in Texas. One a proven commodity and one young stud who has been showing the league what he is made of. Pitchers duel = low scoring game.

Felix Hernandez (11-4, 2.79 ERA), goes for the Mariners. He ranks among the league leaders in wins, ERA and strikeouts (139). The All-Star right-hander has been outstanding in 12 road starts, going 7-1 with a 1.91 ERA while fanning 80 in 84 2-3 innings.

The Rangers will give the ball to rookie Tommy Hunter (3-1, 2.00), who is looking to win a fourth consecutive decision. The 23-year-old right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA in his last four starts, including a solid performance in a 3-1 loss at Seattle on July 9. In that outing, Hunter allowed four hits in six scoreless innings. He's won both of his starts since, yielding two runs and nine hits in 13 innings.

Sounds like a duel to me. Here are some Pure Profets trends:

Under is 9-0 in Mariners last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 14-2 in Mariners last 16 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 12-2 in Mariners last 14 vs. American League West.
Under is 22-4-1 in Mariners last 27 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 9-2 in Mariners last 11 Saturday games.
Under is 22-6 in Mariners last 28 games following a loss.
Under is 8-1 in Hernandez's last 9 starts as a favorite.
Under is 25-5-2 in Rangers last 32 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game.
Under is 21-5-2 in Rangers last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-0 in Hunters last 8 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in Umpire Darrell Cousins' last 4 games behind home plate.

Too many trends to ignore!

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY:

MARINERS/RANGERS UNDER 8 1/2

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