Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Aug 4 - Always play the Hot team over the Cold team in baseball if getting a good betting line.

We have a free pick on a game tonight where the betting line seems way off. How can the best team in baseball since the All Star break be an underdog to a team that has lost 7 in a row and is in a tail spin?

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnatti Reds

After stumbling through the first half of the season, the Cubs (56-48) have gone 20-10 since July 1 and an NL-best 13-5 since the All-Star break to move one percentage point ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the tough NL Central division race. While the Cubs have made an impressive turnaround, the Reds are watching their playoffs hopes vanish.

Cincinnati (45-60) has lost seven in a row and 13 of 14, going a major league-worst 5-21 since July 5 to go from two games out of first into a last-place tie with Pittsburgh, 11 1/2 off the division lead.

Chicago's offense has really started to click and that gives it the edge against baseball's coldest pitcher tonight. The Reds' Cueto had both the majors' worst ERA (8.16) and opponents' batting average (.355) last month. Teams have figured him out. The Reds are 1-4 in Cueto's last 5 starts vs. the Cubs.

Tom Gorzelanny is expected to make his debut for the Cubs tonite and I expect the team to rally behind him and give him plenty of run support. The Reds really struggle against lefty starters, averaging just 3.8 runs per game with a .249 batting average. The Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Reds.

Pure Profets trends:
Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
Reds are 6-22 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a loss.
Cubs are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Bottom line, all signs point to the Cubbies.

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY:

CHICAGO CUBS -EVEN

-lets take it to the bank

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