August 2 - Play hot home teams needing wins over teams that are coasting

There is some great baseball to be played now as teams strive to make the playoffs. Other teams have a nice lead and can afford to rest their stars and coast into the playoffs. Today's free pick will showcase a hot pitcher vs. one that has been on the downslide recently.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

The Braves have won 11 of their last 14 at home. Starting today is Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69 ERA) who has won all three of his starts at Turner Field in that span, allowing one earned run and only six hits in 20 2/3 innings. With an offense that has been inconsistent for much of the year, Atlanta has relied on strong pitching - its 3.74 ERA ranks 4th lowest in the majors - to stay within striking distance in the NL East and wild-card races. Jurrjens has been perhaps the Braves' best pitcher this season, with his ERA leading the team's starters and ranking among the top six in the NL. The right-hander has been especially hot lately, going 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last four starts overall. Jurrjens beat the Dodgers twice last year, allowing two runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He'll again face Los Angeles' Chad Billingsley after beating him in Atlanta's 9-3 victory July 8, 2008.

The Dodgers (64-40) aren't feeling much heat with a comfortable lead in the NL West, but Billingsley (10-6, 3.96) is under some pressure after his recent struggles. The right-hander won nine of his first 12 decisions and had a 2.72 ERA on June 14, but since then he's 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his last eight starts.
He allowed one hit through five shutout innings Tuesday against St. Louis, but gave up six runs and couldn't get out of the sixth in a 10-0 loss, walking a season-high six. This has been a habit for him, having that atrocious inning that basically gives the game away. Besides his loss to Jurrjens, Billingsley also lost to the Braves in his first start against them April 19, 2008. In the two outings, the right-hander walked nine and allowed nine earned runs in 10 1-3 innings.

Lets see if things stay the same and the Braves can do it again at home in prime time on ESPN.

PURE PROFETS FREE PLAY OF THE DAY

ATLANTA BRAVES -135

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