Sunday, July 19, 2009

July 19 - How to bet a total in baseball and a free pick

Keeping the winning bets coming. We did it again last night with the Seattle Mariners. Jarrod Washburn came through as expected giving up only one run through 6 2/3 innings with the bullpen shutting down the Indians the rest of the way for a 3-1 victory.

As I said before this is the best time to gamble on baseball as players and teams have already shown their colors through the first half and are still trying to get it done before big trades and September call-ups. Today we will look at another way to make money on baseball. Betting totals.

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Betting on totals in baseball is a very underused, but great way to make good money gambling. Baseball totals are just like the totals for any other sport, in that you're betting the total number of points (runs in this case) is either over or under the bookmaker's predicted total. When the odds on the money line are too steep for you on a game, look toward the total if you like a starting pitcher but not the offense of a team.

In tonight's Mets-Braves game we have 2 successful starting pitchers along with 2 teams that just do not put a lot of runs on the board, especially for them. Neither team has a record above .500 which shows they usually can't get enough runs on the board for a win.

For Atlanta we have strikeout pitcher Javier Vazquez (6-7, 2.95). Strikeout pitchers for some reason typically perform better in night games and are a solid under play. If fewer batters are hitting the ball there are fewer chances for men on base and fewer chances for runs to score. Some pitchers just don't get the run support from their teammates either. Vazquez is 2-3 over his last eight starts despite a 1.96 ERA. The Braves have given him an average of 1.8 runs to work with over that span. In his last outing on July 7, the Braves lineup gave him just enough to earn the win in a 2-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs. He gave up one run and five hits while striking out six in seven innings.

In a similar situation, Fernando Nieve (3-3, 3.03 ERA) will take his turn in the Mets' rotation Sunday. The right-hander has lost his last three starts, getting a total of one run of offensive backing during that stretch. He has been a bright spot for the slumping Mets, being turned into a quality starting pitcher after starting the season in the bullpen. After expecting a good season, we try to give the Mets the benefit of the doubt due to the injuries they have had to their batting order all season. For today's game injuries to Carlos Beltran (knee), Carlos Delgado (hip), Jose Reyes (calf) and Gary Sheffield (hamstring) will keep them out of the lineup.

Here are some Pure Profets trends to help with your play:
-Under is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League East.
-Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games.
-Under is 6-0 in Braves last 6 when opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
-Under is 8-0 in Braves last 8 games following a loss.
-Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
-Under is 9-2-1 in Braves last 12 games as a home favorite.
-Under is 8-0 in Vazquez's last 8 starts overall.
-Under is 9-1 in umpire Marvin Hudson's last 10 Sunday games behind home plate.

We see a good low scoring game here today and will play the best trending bet that is on the board.

PURE PROFETS PLAY OF THE DAY IS:

METS/BRAVES UNDER 8 1/2

*for more info and plays email us at pureprofets@gmail.com

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